Returning to Economics Content
Published on HivePostify by @spectrumecons · Mon Jul 20 2026
Hi Everyone,
Over the last two to three years, I have contributed significantly less to my regular economics and social economics content. My time has been spent on my fictional book series Sapien Loop. Even though the Sapien Loop series is fiction, the stories are based on another planet; much of my economics knowledge has been applied to building the world, the key storylines, and the main characters.
The books, four in total, are available on [Amazon](https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0DSW9PD29?binding=kindleedition&ref=sagadpssdsksdp) as ebooks as well as paperbacks and hardcover books. All the chapters of the books are available in my @captainhive account, and they have been organised in my collection posts in my @spectrumecons account. These books are a good read if you are interested in how economics can be applied to control populations in a different setting.
On completion of the fourth book, I have decided to return to my economics content. So much has happened over those few years. Unfortunately, almost all of it has been bad. Societies, Western in particular, continue to decline. Despite this decline, it appears people are still able to survive. Debt is a powerful tool that can delay the onset of hardship for a long time. However, once interest payments become insurmountable, people’s lives could be thrown into crisis very quickly. The exact point this will happen is difficult to predict. Figure 1 contains the rising average household from 2015 to 2025.
Figure 1: Average Total UK Household Debt Excluding Mortgages
Source: [Clearscore](https://www.clearscore.com/learn/credit-cards/average-household-debt-uk)
Topics I Plan On Covering
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Below is a list of topics I intend to cover over the next few months. Some of these will change as events in the world evolve or as my priorities change. I may include several interrelated topics in the same post if that provides greater understanding.
- Strait of Hormuz and the Iran War - The West Transformation - Deliberate Incompetence as a Cover for Self-Destructive Policy - Multi-tier Society - Rotten Justice - Replacement Migration and Major War Brewing - Imported Racism - Spend More Get Less - Sanctions of Pain - Controlled Opposition Rules the Day - Aspects of Freedom - Artificial Intelligence Revolution - History of Power
Strait of Hormuz and the Iran War
The Iran war is most likely the most consequential event of 2026. It affects every country in the world. This is mostly because of the disruption caused by the partial closure and sometimes the full closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
In my January post [The Left Right Left Right March Intensifies](https://peakd.com/hive-112018/@spectrumecons/the-left-right-left-right-march-intensifies), I discuss, in several paragraphs, the possibility of the US attacking Iran and some of the consequences. It appears much of what I discussed came true.
There was an ‘attempt’ at regime change. The Ayatollah was killed. This did not lead to regime change, as the Ayatollah was replaced by his son, who is arguably more of an Islamic hardliner than his father was.
Iran has control over the Strait of Hormuz and can close it whenever it wants. Closing the strait was an obvious course of action, as the impact of its closure on the global economy is potentially immense. Most of the impact has not been felt yet, as the use of oil reserves has shielded economies from immediate shortages. These supplies will not last forever. They are dropping to almost record lows ([Fortune](https://fortune.com/2026/06/10/us-strategic-petroleum-reserve-depleted-lowest-level-since-reagan/)).
The impact on fertiliser supply might be even more catastrophic than that of oil. Prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a 30% decline in global fertiliser supply ([Kline Group](https://klinegroup.com/chemicals/agspecialty-pesticides/strait-of-hormuz-fertilizer-agriculture-impact/)). This could be catastrophic to the global food supply, with African nations suffering the most. The impact of these shortages is not likely to be felt until early 2027 once food supplies have been used up in the winter. Even if shipping returns to normal now, the impact will still be felt. A massive humanitarian disaster looms.
Iran attacked almost all US bases across the Gulf States. This was another obvious response by Iran. They even stated they would respond in this manner. The extent of the damage caused to these bases has not been reported in the media. It is quite likely it is extensive.
Donald Trump’s reasons for attacking Iran have been inconsistent. The reason most consistent with actions taken is to force Iran to change leadership and significantly change their regime. The desired outcome would be to insert a puppet leader who would let the US Government and the largest oil companies control Iran’s resources.
The US Establishment would have known this outcome was highly unlikely, but that would not matter, as there are other more significant objects that this war has put them on the path to obtaining. These objectives include:
- Catastrophic economic and social crises in Europe and North America. - Mass migration of people fleeing war zones such as Iran and other countries affected directly by the war. - Famine and poverty in North and East African nations and South Asian nations. This will lead to mass migration into Europe. - The collapse of Israel caused by prolonged war, economic and social isolation, and an eventual invasion by Türkiye.
These objectives might seem hard to believe. I will elaborate on all of the above in a post dedicated to the war.
The West Transformation
Western countries are heading towards disaster. The decline accelerated from the beginning of the Covid-19 fiasco. The decline has been hastened by the policies relating to the Ukraine war, immigration, policing, public expenditure, freedom of expression, and many others. The fallout from the war in Iran is just the next stage in this accelerated decline.
How will this end up? Will it be a former Soviet Union type of economic and social collapse? Will it be a Lebanon-type civil war, a religious and cultural replacement collapse that has led to perennial instability? Will it be an Iranian type of violent uprising and radical conservative shift?
Deliberate Incompetence as a Cover for Self-Destructive Policy
British politics has been marred by what appears to be gross incompetence. I would strongly argue that the British political system serves its core functions very well. It has managed to manoeuvre itself around some difficult circumstances. The most impressive manoeuvring involved negating almost every aspect of Brexit. Another impressive feat was shifting the ‘right’ of politics from the Conservative Party to the Reform UK Party, which is still posing, to a certain extent, as the controlled opposition.
Many of the individual politicians are not particularly competent, but they are playing their current role well. The UK Establishment are attempting to radically change the UK. The changes they desire (e.g., dismantle the economy and restructure culture) are in vast contradiction to what the citizens of the UK want. The people of the UK have become aware that the Government are not serving their interests.
The UK Government has skilfully managed to appear grossly incompetent rather than appearing as if they are acting directly against the people. This approach has been used to give the people some hope that if the leadership is changed, things will improve. This is one of the reasons for frequent changes to leadership (i.e., the face of the leadership). This is also another reason Reform UK has replaced the Conservative Party as the preferred opposition; they have yet to fail the people. This will direct anger away from the Government and keep it focused between the various demographics.
Multi-tiered Society
Image created with Grok 4.0
One of the most prominent propaganda circulating in Western media is that the West operates on a two-tier system. The claim is that minority groups are treated better than the European natives are. For example, they are often perceived to be favoured by policy (i.e. DEI), favoured in policing (i.e. treated less aggressively), favoured by courts (i.e. given lighter sentences), favoured in receipt of benefits (i.e. elevated on housing waiting lists), and favoured in receiving access to medical treatment (i.e. they are allowed to skip queues in hospitals because they need an interpreter).
To claim a two-tier system completely oversimplifies what is actually happening. We live in a multi-tiered society, which is predominantly divided by class. This is, at minimum, a three-tier system. Tier one are the elites. Tier two are the elites’ gofers and celebrities. Tier three are the rest of us. The additional divide based on skin colour is designed to divide people by race, religion, culture, and politics. This is easy to do considering how incompatible the cultures of most of the migrants are with the native Europeans. This is to create civil unrest between the two groups. In some countries, the ethnic Europeans will reverse the favouritism in their favour.
Rotten Justice
The justice systems in most countries are deeply flawed. A good justice system should provide justice to the victims, opportunities for rehabilitation for the culprits, and protection to society in general. In many cases, none of this is achieved. Often there is no reasonable justice for the victims. There is minimal compensation for their suffering; only 3% of victims of violent crime receive some form of compensation in the UK ([UK Parliament](https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2025-04-29/debates/DC496B40-0F88-4766-B872-BE9F3CC582C4/CriminalInjuriesCompensation)). More than half of culprits released from prison reoffend within two years ([Social Exclusion Unit](https://www.bristol.ac.uk/poverty/downloads/keyofficialdocuments/Reducing%20Reoffending.pdf)). Violent crime in countries such as the UK has continued to increase ([Vision of Humanity](https://www.visionofhumanity.org/violent-crime-rising-in-the-uk/)).
The system is deeply flawed. It is flawed from the investigative process to the process of prosecution to the treatment of both victims and culprits. Does the question and statement hold true for your justice system?
>Does it matter if they are guilty? All that matters is that you can convince the jury they are!
Replacement Migration and Major War Brewing
Europe has been experiencing mass migration for decades. The percentage of native populations is falling rapidly. This decline is accelerated by higher immigrant birth rates and will be accelerated further when native populations feel forced to emigrate and if war breaks out in Europe.
As the standard of living falls and the taxes increase in European countries, people who can emigrate will leave these European countries and will live elsewhere. These are the wealthier people. Their absence will hasten the decline of the countries even faster. The UK is losing millionaires in record numbers ([The Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-millionaires-non-dom-tax-rachel-reeves-b2775646.html)).
The war between Russia and Ukraine continues. European/NATO leaders insist on continuing the war and flooding Ukraine with as many weapons as they can. Ukrainians keep fighting, but they do not have an unlimited number of people to throw into this war. At some point, the European countries are likely to become involved directly. Several articles suggest that European countries are preparing for war with Russia by 2030 ([Pravada](https://nato.news-pravda.com/russia/2026/06/29/109939.html)). War could break out even sooner if Russian leadership no longer tolerates attacks deep into Russian territory. Russia will also not want to accept a future war based purely on NATO’s terms and timeframes.
If or when war in Europe breaks out, the loss of life could be enormous. A war between NATO and Russia is not likely to be short. The Russians are not going to give up easily; they have proved that in other major wars such as the Great Patriotic War (Eastern Front of World War Two). The vast majority of the people dying in this war will be native European men. The huge influx of men from North Africa and South Asia will replace these men. Within a few decades, the demographics of Europe will be completely different.
Why would Western Establishments desire such radical changes? The short answer is power. Elites would prefer a population that can be more easily controlled. An ideology such as Islam can give them that control without the inconveniences of the Western democratic systems. The Gulf States have demonstrated how successful this can be for leaders. I will discuss further in another post.
Imported Racism
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It appears that racism is climbing in European countries. This is an expected consequence of mass migration from nations with incompatible cultures as well as the Governments’ and media’s efforts to turn people against each other based on skin colour (discussed earlier in the post).
Racism has become a major taboo in most Western countries. This has a lot to do with historical racism and the treatment of people in certain European colonies (i.e., abysmal treatment of native Australians). The US has a dark history towards African slaves. Immigrants from countries outside the West did not suffer such guilt of racism. Many even see themselves as victims of historic racism. Many may also see themselves as victims of Western foreign policy.
Humans have a natural tendency to trust people who look like themselves. That is why it is not difficult to divide people based on skin colour. Immigrants who have not been conditioned to detest racist behaviour are more inclined to behave in a racist manner. It could range from minor things such as exclusionary behaviour to more major things such as direct attacks on other races.
Aggressive racist behaviour from one side will eventually be met with racism from the other side. Despite the taboo of racism, the native Europeans will reach a breaking point where they will respond to immigrants negatively. The actions of the Government and media are fuelling such retaliatory behaviour.
Spend More Get Less
Image created with Grok 4.0
Tags: #economics#politics#crisis#iran#uk#economy#society