Strait of Hormuz and the Iran War – Part 2: Reasons for War and the Bigger Agenda
Published on HivePostify by @spectrumecons · Wed Aug 12 2026
Hi Everyone,
Welcome to Part 2 of my series on the Strait of Hormuz and the Iran War.
[Part 1](https://peakd.com/hive-112018/@spectrumecons/strait-of-hormuz-and-the-iran-war-part-1-the-bogeyman-of-the-middle-east) covered various aspects of Iran. Iran’s past hundred years, particularly the 1979 Revolution, have played an important part leading up to the current war.
Part 2 covers the US’ and Israel’s relationship. This is important because the two countries are allies in the war against Iran. Like Iran, the relationship is complicated, and the media are misleading people on its true nature.
Part 2 continues by exploring the objectives of the war from both Donald Trump’s perspective as well as the US Establishment’s; we should be quite confident that they are not the same. The post wraps up by discussing the bigger picture and how the outcomes from this war could fit into the Establishments’ agenda.
Israel Captured by the US Establishment
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Israel is the US’ partner in the war against Iran and, arguably, Shia populations in general. To put this war in greater context, it is important to discuss the relationship between these two countries.
The US has arguably been Israel’s greatest ally for a very long time. The US has continued to provide Israel with weapons and aid. The US has consistently supported Israel at the UN General Assembly and Security Council meetings, while most other nations have opposed them. Given the US’ position on the Security Council, this is significant. Their alliance appears to have only grown stronger since Donald Trump has become president. For example, Trump and his team managed to negotiate a deal with Hamas to release the remaining Israeli hostages.
However, the US Establishment has also sought to isolate Israel from the rest of the world. In 2025, 147 of the 193 United Nations member States recognised Palestinian Statehood ([Ahram Online](https://english.ahram.org.eg/UI/Front/Inner.aspx?NewsContentID=553960)). This is despite the fact that no clear borders for such a state can even be defined. It also follows closely in the aftermath of the 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel; such timing can be considered a huge insult to Israel and tacit support for Hamas’ actions.
In 2024, an ICC arrest warrant was issued for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Several European countries have threatened to arrest him if he enters their country or even their airspace ([Observer Diplomat](https://observerdiplomat.com/countries-that-would-arrest-netanyahu/)).
In 2025, Israeli ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich were sanctioned by several Western countries; these included the UK, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Slovenia, and the Netherlands ([Euro News](https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/09/17/eu-moves-to-sanction-israel-over-gaza-west-bank-humanitarian-crisis) and [PBS](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/netherlands-bans-2-far-right-israeli-ministers-as-eu-considers-sanctions-on-israel-over-gaza)). In 2026, the EU agreed to sanction Israeli settlers in the West Bank over alleged violence ([BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c202wp2rl09o)). None of these sanctions would substantially hurt Israel’s economy or ability to remain a military power.
The US Establishment is the most powerful voice in the Western world. The UN headquarters are even based in New York. Other Western countries always fall in line with the US regarding their actions if not necessarily with their words. The current battle of words between Donald Trump and many other Western ‘leaders’ is only for the purpose of maintaining the illusion of the left-right divide.
The best example of Western leaders falling in line is NATO. The US is the leader of NATO. They account for over 60% of military spending ([Visual Capitalist](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-the-u-s-dominates-nato-defense-spending/)). They have dozens of bases and thousands of troops across NATO member nations ([24 Italy](https://en.ilsole24ore.com/art/nato-thats-what-role-uses-40-bases-and-60-per-cent-contributions-AIXuMhIC)).
Between 2020 and 2024, the US provided European NATO members with 64% of their weapons ([Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/us-dominates-european-weapons-purchases-report/)). The European countries have a complete military dependence on the US. The NATO Secretary General even referred to Donald Trump as ‘Daddy’. Considering the current war in Ukraine, the US could easily pressure all the European countries and other NATO members into supporting Israel. However, that has not happened.
The US has either allowed or encouraged their NATO allies to publicly drop support for Israel. This has allowed predominantly ‘left-leaning’ NATO Governments to appease a large portion of their voter base who have been manipulated to dislike Israel by ‘left-leaning’ media, NGOs, activist groups, trade unions, and even the actions of Israeli officials themselves (e.g., Itamar Ben-Gvir’s public shaming of detained flotilla activists).
The largest US military base in the Middle East is located in Qatar. This base typically hosts as many as 10,000 troops and approximately 100 aircraft or drones ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AlUdeidAirBase)). US companies have invested heavily in Qatar, and Qatar has invested heavily in the US. Donald Trump and the Qatari leadership have agreed to a trade partnership that could be worth as much as $1.2 trillion ([The Media Line](https://themedialine.org/headlines/qatari-emir-cites-1-2-trillion-us-partnership-as-trump-praises-doha-investment/)).
Qatar is also the main backer of Hamas. They have given them US$1.8 billion since 2012, and they pledged $360 million a year in 2021. Qatar hosts the leaders of Hamas, where they live in luxury five-star accommodation. They use their state media, Al Jazeera, to promote Hamas and anti-Israel propaganda. They have also sponsored and funded Western media, a possible reason for the rise in anti-Israel propaganda in the West ([FDD](https://www.fdd.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/10-things-to-know-about-hamas-and-qatar.pdf)). The Qatari Government funded other terrorists. They have hosted terrorist leaders from Afghanistan and Syria. They have donated over $1 billion to the Muslim Brotherhood ([The Federalist](https://thefederalist.com/2019/08/15/qatar-state-sponsor-terrorism/)).
If Israel had considerable influence over the US, their leadership would be able to oppose US’ close relationship with Qatar. The US Establishment most likely supports Qatar because it is profitable for them and to continue to stoke tensions between the Sunni and Shia Muslims.
The US benefits from Israel’s isolation because it makes Israel more dependent on them. Thus, giving the US greater control over Israel. US control over Israel is of great importance, as it gives the US its strongest grip on the Middle East. The many US military bases across the Middle East also give the US power, but it is nothing compared to a whole country acting as a giant base that also provides its own military personnel.
The US has ensured that Israel maintains a military strong enough to intimidate all the Gulf States, thus ensuring their continued compliance. Israel’s military is also capable of inflicting significant damage to Iran on the US’ behalf. In return, Israel faces the brunt of Iran’s retaliation with minimal consequences to the US or its citizens.
Israeli leadership, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in particular, prioritises the US Establishment’s interests in the Middle East. We could argue that in doing so, they are acting in Israel’s short-term best interests because they maintain US support and protection. In the long term, this relationship could prove disastrous to Israel. Using Israel as a threat and, in some cases, a battering ram only antagonises neighbouring countries (e.g., Lebanon, Syria, Turkiye, and Iraq), which are not friendly towards Israel but do not act because of current US threats and diplomatic arrangements.
It is likely that the current Israeli leadership do not fully understand the extent of their isolation. The EU Establishment appears ready to break ties with Israel on a long-term basis. They can back this decision based on pressure from their own populations. Considering Trump’s low popularity and the impending further economic crash once the impact of the Iran war is fully felt, it is likely the next US President will be from the Democratic Party. Considering the change in public opinion against Israel, especially from Democrat voters, the next president will distance themselves from Israel or worse if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins ([Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/aoc-surges-past-buttigieg-leaves-harris-dust-key-2028-battleground-poll)).
The Republican base has grown more divided over Trump’s presidency, which is bad for potential candidates Marko Rubio and JD Vance. There are also the conspiracy theories, such as Israel controlling the US Government and the Greater Project Israel, which are being spread by popular ‘Conservative’ journalists such as Tucker Carlson. Almost 40% of Americans believe pro-Israeli groups (example given, AIPAC) have too much influence over the US Government ([Arab American Institute](https://www.aaiusa.org/library/american-attitudes-israeli-actions-increasingly-unpopular)).
AIPAC
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The influence of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is difficult to deny when such a high percentage of candidates are backed by them. For example, in the 2024 elections, 97% of the candidates they backed won seats in Congress ([Grokipedia](https://grokipedia.com/page/AIPAC)). Is AIPAC influence equivalent to Israeli influence on the US leadership? First, we need to establish if AIPAC is even a pro-Israel group.
AIPAC is not funded by Israel or any Israel-based companies or groups. Instead, it is funded entirely by US citizens ([AIPAC](https://aipac.org/aipac-money)). Much of the money donated to AIPAC is from Christian Evangelicals ([David E. Ostrich](https://www.britshalomstatecollege.org/torah-commentaries/2024/3/17/the-problem-with-aipac)).
The objectives of AIPAC revolve almost entirely around bolstering Israel’s military capabilities. The US provides around $3.3 billion annually in military financing and another $500 million for missile defence programmes ([Grokipedia](https://grokipedia.com/page/AIPAC)).
Jan Koum, one of AIPAC’s biggest donors, is also a major supporter of financing Ukraine’s military efforts against Russia ([Loomered](https://loomered.com/2023/12/10/nikki-haleys-top-donor-exposed-as-ukrainian-billionaire-key-zelensky-ally-jan-koum/)). This has led to the prolonging of the war and deaths of millions of soldiers. This is clearly not in the interest of the Ukrainian people. Likewise, the billions in military financing are not in the best interests of the Israeli people. It is in the best interests of the US Establishment. It gives them greater control over Israel as well as encouraging them to fight wars on their behalf.
The majority of Christian Evangelicals are also Christian Zionists. They believe that it is biblical prophecy for the second coming of Jesus that all the Jews must return to the Holy Land. Therefore, they strongly support the creation of Israel and its expansion to encompass all the land promised to the Jews in the Bible. This ideology gives credence to the conspiracy theory of the Greater Israel Project. However, they also believe that an apocalyptic war is a precursor to the return of Jesus. Two-thirds of Jews in Israel would be killed, and the other third would be converted to Christianity ([Jewish Virtual Library](https://jewishvirtuallibrary.org/christian-zionism)).
Both Turkiye (Magog based on geography) and Iran could be involved in that final war ([Jewish Voice](https://www.jvmi.co.uk/article/rise-turkey-and-ezekiel-38-39)). Christian Evangelicals believe that Jesus will intervene to save Israel. This is likely a reason why they are so eager for Israel to wage war with Iran and will soon want them to go to war with Turkiye. Isolating Israel from the rest of the world (described earlier in the post) also fits in with their belief of the end of days’ global opposition to Israel. People acting on these beliefs do not have the best intentions for Israeli people or Jews in general.
The Christian Evangelicals are not the true driving force behind the US position on Israel or the war with Iran. They are being manipulated based on their belief system. The agenda expands much broader than Israel.
Section 219 of the National Defence Authorization Act
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Section 219 of the National Defence Authorization Act (NDAA) is causing some controversy in the US. It aims to establish the United States–Israel Defence Technology Cooperation Initiative. This would accelerate joint research, development, and industrial integration of defence technologies. The intention is to embed Israeli-origin technology into U.S. military systems. This would include missile defence, counter-drone systems, artificial intelligence, quantum technology, and cybersecurity ([Factually](https://factually.co/fact-checks/military/section-219-ndaa-merger-us-israel-explained-55cdcf)).
Political commentators and journalists such as Tucker Carlson have raised concerns that such an arrangement would give Israel control over the US Government ([Tucker Carlson](https://tuckersmcarlson.substack.com/p/tucker-carlson-just-called-it-what)). The main argument is that the US military would become dependent on specific Israeli-origin technologies by permanently integrating them into US defence programmes. This dependence would increase Israel’s influence over the US Government.
It initially sounds like a compelling argument. However, certain aspects of the initiative are unclear. If the US military becomes dependent on Israeli-origin technology developed by State-owned Israeli companies, the Israeli Government could gain influence over the US Government. This is highly unlikely to be the case. Israel has three state-owned defence companies. They are Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, and Tomer. The Israeli Government plans to privatise or partially privatise all three of these companies ([CTech](https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/b1n0r8whzl)). Rafael could be listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
US companies are acquiring many of the remaining Israeli defence companies. For example, Ondas Holdings has acquired Sentrycs (drone interception), Omnisys (military software), Roboteam (UGVs) , 4M Defense, and has attempted to acquire mPrest (Iron Dome command systems) ([CTech](https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/rjuixwxlmg)). Ondas Holdings is also hiring former top Israeli military and intelligence officers for high positions within the company (e.g., David Barnea, the former Mossad chief, and Yehuda Almakias, the former head of the Defence Ministry's R&D directorate). Other companies include Axon, which bought Carbyne (communications), and Kratos Defence and Security Solutions, which merged with communications supplier Orbit Communications Systems ([Caliber](https://caliber.az/en/post/us-firms-acquire-two-israeli-defence-companies-in-deals-worth-1-billion)).
The technology developed by the Israeli companies acquired by US companies aligns with the type of technology to be integrated into US defence systems outlined in Section 219 of the NDAA. These accusations and the privatisation of the largest Israeli defence companies give the Israeli Government less control over their own defence technology and development. Section 219 of the NDAA will not give the Israeli Government any leverage over the US Government. Instead, it has allowed the US Establishment (US companies) greater control over Israeli defence output, thus making it harder for Israel to diverge from the US.
Does Benjamin Netanyahu Control Donald Trump?
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Another conspiracy theory is that Benjamin Netanyahu is able to control or greatly influence Donald Trump’s decision-making. Some claim this control is linked to donations/bribes (e.g., AIPAC), and others claim that he is able to control Trump using the Epstein files.
The Epstein files conspiracy theory is interesting. The Trump administration has released millions of documents, but some of them have been heavily redacted, and none of them contain incriminating evidence that has led to any arrests ([OPB](https://www.opb.org/article/2026/04/03/why-have-there-been-no-arrests-from-the-epstein-files/)).
It does not matter what is in the Epstein files. Every bit of information could be released, and no further arrests would be made; these arrests would have already occurred. Making information public does not dictate the Department of Justice’s decision to prosecute individuals ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2026/01/30/nx-s1-5693904/epstein-files-doj-trump)).
The contents of the Epstein files could cause public outrage. However, the current approach to the partial release has also caused public outrage. People will rely on their own imaginations about the horrendous activities on Epstein Island. This perception could be as damaging to Trump as the truth. Whatever contents that Israel could release from the Epstein files would probably make little difference to Trump’s reputation with his base.
Benjamin Netanyahu frequently meets with Donald Trump. These meetings are often followed by decisions or policy shifts. This does not mean Netanyahu is controlling Trump. Trump listens to Netanyahu because of his political experience and expertise and because of his standing within the Establishment.
In practice, the US has taken the lead in almost all decision-making regarding the Iran war. Recent examples include:
- The US has controlled the pace of the war with Iran. - The US has determined when both the US and Israel attack as well as when they pause the fighting. - The US dictates the terms in agreements such as ceasefires and the recent Memorandum of Understanding.
There are the occasional fake disputes where it appears Netanyahu is standing up to Trump. For example, rejecting the 15-point peace plan in Gaza ([Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-16039753/Trump-peace-plan-Gaza-rejected-Israel-Netanyahu.html)).
Tags: #middleeast#war#iran#economics#israel#us#islam#politics#crisis