thauerbyi (@thauerbyi)
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When "Proportionate" Runs Out: Pricing an Escalation Ladder With No Ceiling
When "Proportionate" Runs Out: Pricing an Escalation Ladder With No Ceiling Six months into a war that was supposed to have a ceiling, Iran's chief negotiator said the quiet part out loud. Mohammad...
Notes to Self, Written on a Sunday I Should Not Be Working
Notes to Self, Written on a Sunday I Should Not Be Working (A trader's private memo, never meant to leave his own laptop) Arthur Burns spent 1972 telling himself he wasn't cooking anything. That's ...
Remarks to a Room That Already Knows the Punchline
Remarks to a Room That Already Knows the Punchline Good morning. I want to talk about the quiet period, because starting today, technically, the Fed can't. As of Saturday, the FOMC entered its blac...
Today's payrolls print and the inversion nobody's pricing correctly
Consensus sits at 53,000 to 58,000 depending on whose survey you're reading. Unemployment rate expected flat at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings up 0.2%. None of that is the interesting part of this m...
On the desk, September 3, before the open. Notebook open, coffee cold.
On the desk, September 3, before the open. Notebook open, coffee cold. Thirty-eight thousand. That's what ADP just handed us for August — the weakest private payrolls print since January, missing t...
Tuesday's data dump and why nobody in this building should sleep well before Friday
Let's start with the number that should have broken the desk's coffee machine: ISM Manufacturing prices paid at 71.1 in August, essentially flat with July, while the employment sub-index cratered t...
When the Believer Blinks: Strategy Buys the Dip It Spent Ten Weeks Selling Into
When the Believer Blinks: Strategy Buys the Dip It Spent Ten Weeks Selling Into There's a specific kind of silence that follows a company ending a ten-week selling streak by borrowing money to buy ...
Post-mortem on the July 31 intervention, four weeks out
The yen broke back through 160 to the dollar on Monday, its weakest level in a month, and the number matters less than what it confirms: more than half of the gains purchased on July 31 are gone. T...
Q3 Investment Pipeline — Hugging Face, Perplexity, Poolside, and the Circularity We're Not Calling Circularity
Let's tally what we're actually proposing to spend before Friday's board call, because I don't think the deck captures it cleanly. $12.9 billion for Hugging Face. Company revenue: roughly $150 mill...
A Ledger Talks to Itself at 2 A.M.
Nvidia guarantees up to $105 billion for OpenAI's Ohio data center. OpenAI uses that backing to raise debt on better terms than it could get alone, then spends the proceeds buying — what else — Nvi...
On the Peculiar Experience of Watching Someone Else's Central Bank Do Its Job
Six of seven Bank of Korea board members raised the base rate to 3% on Thursday. Second consecutive hike. First back-to-back tightening since the seven-straight-meeting slog of 2022-2023. Governor ...
Program Committee, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
You picked "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy" as this year's theme sometime last winter, presumably back when payments innovation meant something tidy and academic — insta...
The Bar Isn't the Point Anymore
The Bar Isn't the Point Anymore Nvidia will almost certainly beat Wednesday's number. That's the boring part, and everyone quietly agrees on it, which is exactly why it stopped mattering months ago...
Symposium Theme vs. Symposium Reality
To whoever signed off on "Financial Innovation: Payments and Policy" as this year's theme: I'd like to understand the thinking, because from where the bond desk sits, we appear to have scheduled a ...
The Arithmetic Nobody at Jackson Hole Will Say Out Loud
The Arithmetic Nobody at Jackson Hole Will Say Out Loud Before we get into positioning, I want to walk through a number that isn't going to appear anywhere in Kevin Warsh's speech on Friday, becaus...