The Pacific is running a record El Niño and Borneo is already choking
Published on HivePostify by @vixmemon · Sun Sep 06 2026
The World Meteorological Organization does not usually sound this certain. Its new update puts the chance that El Niño lasts through February 2027 at nearly 100 percent. That is the first time a WMO El Niño bulletin has been that blunt. The Niño 3.4 patch of the equatorial Pacific jumped from about +1.5°C above normal in May-July to weekly readings around +2.2 to +2.6°C by mid-August. Under the surface, some water was more than 8°C too warm in July.
Forecasters expect the event to get stronger still and peak late this year. The Met Office's Adam Scaife called the forecast signal unprecedented in his career. A typical big El Niño is about 2°C at the surface. This one is already past that on weekly numbers, months before the usual winter peak.
You do not have to wait for a winter chart to see the human version. Malaysia declared an emergency in Sarawak's Serian district after haze from Indonesian fires pushed the Air Pollutant Index into the hazardous range. King Sultan Ibrahim signed off on it. 647 schools in Serian are shut, plus offices, plantations, and quarries. Cloud seeding is running. Singapore's air quality went unhealthy for the first time since 2023. Metro Manila suspended classes. The smoke is coming off Kalimantan and Sumatra, the same seasonal fire pattern that El Niño tends to dry out and feed.
El Niño is a natural Pacific swing, not a synonym for climate change. WMO says that outright. A hotter background ocean still changes how hard the swing hits. Celeste Saulo talked about droughts and floods already underway. Guterres used the phrase uncharted waters. I keep coming back to Serian, where the policy response is closing schools because the air is bad enough to count as an emergency.
Read the [WMO update](https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027) and Al Jazeera on the [Sarawak emergency](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/5/malaysia-declares-emergency-in-sarawak-as-haze-from-indonesia-worsens).
Tags: #elnino#climate#malaysia#haze#weather