10-year U.S. Treasury yield intraday at 4.82%...The highest in 34 months
Published on HivePostify by @yann03 · Thu Sep 03 2026
As concerns over inflation triggered by the Iran war intensified, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note hit the midday 4.8% range, marking its highest level since November 2023.
>The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note, which had surged recently, rose to as high as 4.821% intraday, but gradually gave back its gains and was trading at 4.784% as of 6:08 p.m. Eastern Time, down 0.21% from the previous close. The yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury note was unchanged at 5.266%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury note fell 0.8 basis points to 4.383%.
The global sell-off in government bonds is interpreted as a result of renewed military conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which has pushed international oil prices higher and increased inflation concerns, as well as the heightened possibility of further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note, which is sensitive to monetary policy expectations, rose intraday to 4.41%, marking its highest level since January 2025. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury note also rose to 5.3% intraday before falling back to the 5.26% range.
The market is in an atmosphere of expecting that this upward trend in interest rates will not be easily reversed. BlackRock Investment Research Institute analyzed, "Considering persistent inflation, massive government borrowing, and growing demand for private investment capital, there is little reason for upward pressure on Treasury yields to ease."
>The bond sell-off is spreading not only in the United States but also in major countries around the world. The yield on Japan’s 10-year government bonds surpassed 3% intraday, reaching its highest level in about 30 years since 1996. The yield on the UK 30-year Treasury note also rose to around 5.92% intraday, reaching its highest level since 1998. The yields on Germany’s and France’s 10-year government bonds also rose to their highest levels since 2011 and 2008, respectively. All of these countries are facing inflationary pressures from rising energy prices and massive government debt burdens.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) pointed out that at this week’s G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting, no clear solutions were presented to address fiscal deficits, inflation, and geopolitical risks. It went on to diagnose that the global bond market is effectively assigning a “failing grade” to the leaders of each country. At the G20 meeting, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, “The only way out of the debt problem is to get out through growth,” but this approach is being evaluated as lacking persuasive power. The WSJ pointed out that while the United States’ GDP growth rate over the past year remained at 2.1%, the federal government’s fiscal deficit is expected to exceed 6% of this fiscal year’s GDP. The argument is that, with growth not clearly accelerating and the fiscal deficit not improving, it is difficult to resolve the debt burden through growth alone. The global financial group Barclays analyzed that “the market has seen artificial intelligence (AI) boost growth while supply disruptions and massive government debt have increased inflationary pressures.” He went on to say, “We expect short-term interest rates to remain elevated for a longer period than before,” and assessed that “the current level of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate may not be particularly high, but could be a new normal.” Lee Seung-yoon ([email protected] )
Interest rates are approaching the critical threshold.
If Trump’s ride doesn’t come out or its effect is minimal For now, it looks like we need to sort things out to some extent.
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